Poll Analysis: New Polls Make Little Difference in McCain v. Clinton
Clinton McCain 8.5% probability of winning 91.1% probability of winning Mean of 245 electoral votes Mean of 293 electoral votes Yesterday, Sen. Hillary Clinton had an 8.1% probability of beating Sen. John McCain in a General election. Another day and two polls later, Clinton has, apparently, gained ever so slightly on McCain. Now, after 10,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 849 times (plus we can reasonably give her the 37 ties) and McCain wins 9,114 times. In other words, for